By
Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
About the authorNEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- "This was a sad day for Bernanke," a bond
fund manager told me the day after the Federal Reserve cut interest
rates by an aggressive half-point back in September.
The manager's argument at that time was that the Fed chairman was showing that it could be bullied by Wall Street.
Since
then, the Fed has gotten even easier to push around. The central bank's
dramatic three-quarter of a percentage point rate cut last Tuesday was
the equivalent of shoving a pacifier in a crying baby's mouth.
And
that only stopped the whining for a little bit. The market is set for
another ugly day Monday and Wall Street is moaning for another rate cut
- according to futures, investors are pricing in a 82 percent chance of
another half-point cut this Wednesday.
Enough is enough. It's
time for Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Fed to pull a page from Tony
Danza's book and show investors who's the boss.
Yes, the economy
is teetering on the edge of a recession, if it isn't already in one.
But the Fed has already cut the fed funds rate by 175 basis points
since September.
If the Fed lowers rates much further, it risks going too far.
Historically low rates set the stage for this mortgage mess in the first place.
Plus,
the central bank has already loaned $70 billion to needy banks through
a series of three auctions since December and it is conducting a fourth
auction for $30 billion today. The Fed has said that the credit markets
are already benefiting from these auctions.
And the Fed still has
to be worried about inflation. That certainly shouldn't be the Fed's
biggest concern right now but it is silly to suggest that inflation is
dead considering the high prices of oil, gold, wheat and other
commodities. Inflation is dead only if you have the luxury of not
needing to drive anywhere, heat your house or eat.
I'm not optimistic that the Fed will stand up to Wall Street. Market conditions are too fragile right now.
Still,
I hope that some members of the Fed are paying close attention to what
one of their colleagues had to say recently about the risk of cutting
rates too drastically.
Dallas Federal Reserve
president Richard Fisher, speaking in Philadelphia on the same day that
Bernanke was giving his blessing to an economic stimulus package during
testimony on Capitol Hill, made some interesting remarks that the
market pretty much ignored. Read his full speech.
Fisher,
as an alternate member of the Fed's policy-making Open Market Committee
last year, did not vote on the 2007 rate cuts. But he will be a
committee member this year. So his opinions are worth paying attention
to.
He warned that the Fed still has only two mandates,
fostering price stability and supporting economic growth. Keeping the
markets happy is not a new third mandate.
"Our job is not to
bail out imprudent decisionmakers or errant bankers, nor is it to
directly support the stock market or to somehow make whole those money
managers, financial engineers and real estate speculators who got it
wrong. And it most definitely is not to err on the side of Wall Street
at the expense of Main Street," he said.
He reminded everyone that rate cuts don't work instantly, which is why the Fed needs to proceed cautiously.
"The
act of changing or not changing the fed funds target rate, in and of
itself, has no immediate effect on the economy. Like a good single malt
whiskey, the ameliorating or stimulating influence kicks in only with a
lag."
And most importantly, he stressed how crucial it is for the
Fed to not go overboard in response to current doom and gloom headlines.
"We must be mindful that short-term fixes often lead to long-term problems," Fisher said.
One
can only hope that other Fed members are listening more closely to
Fisher's words of wisdom than the market's panic-stricken calls for
another huge rate cut.
By
Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
January 28 2008: 3:30 PM EST
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